This week in 1967, original bad-boy front-man Jim Morrison and The Doors released "Light My Fire" in the US, eventually reaching Number 1 on the singles chart.
The song isn't particularly deep, although it's got an oddly long and intense organ solo, and it was an early pioneer in the psychedelic rock genre. On the surface, it's about sex, drugs, and (a little) rock 'n' roll. Metaphorically, one might say it's about letting go, breaking through, transcending every day. It's not quite like a calming meditation session, but a bit so.
Two fun facts about the song. First, Buick originally offered the band $75,000 (almost $651,000 in today's dollars) to use the song and change one of the lyrics to "Come on, Buick, Light My Fire" until Jim Morrison threatened to smash a Buick with a sledgehammer on TV if they released the track.
Second, the band appeared on The Ed Sullivan Show with the song in the fall of that year and was told to change the lyric, "Girl, we couldn't get much higher" to "Girl, we couldn't get much better," to which the band agreed. During rehearsals, Morrison and the band complied. But during the live broadcast, Morrison changed back to the original, earning the band a lifetime ban from the show. As if Jim Morrison, yes, that Jim Morrison, one of the most enigmatic, rebellious, and electrifying front-men in the annals of rock 'n' roll, with unparalleled charisma, devil-may-care-but-I-don't an attitude, and poetic, drug-induced prowess, even care, man.
Morrison would later die (from an alleged heroin overdose) in a bathtub in Paris at the age of just 27, adding to the legend of 27 Club, which includes Brian Jones, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Jean-Michel Basquiat, Kurt Cobain, and Amy Winehouse. But "Light My Fire" will live on forever as a track you can simply close your eyes and lose yourself to.
This month's economic indicators are like that—if you close your eyes, you can lose yourself in the reverie, without thinking about macro-interest rate policies of the Fed. First, note average weekly wages are above $1,000/week for the third straight month, putting Rapid City on par with Sioux Falls yet again (if you care about that whole West River/East River thing).
Second, that's almost an 11% growth rate from a year ago, which is great news considering the price of housing has retreated from a year ago in all three major Rapid City zip codes. In short, wages have gone up while housing prices have retreated. We also see this in the regional consumer price index (CPI) for the region, which stands at 2.8%, well within touching distance of the targeted inflation rate of 2-3%.
And there's more. Gross sales are up from last year. So are airport passengers and hotel occupancies. Same with nonfarm employment and population. So what's the problem then?
It's all workforce and interest rates. One is falling, while the other stays the same. But both are breaking bad. Simply put, high interest rates mean slower growth; slower growth means less hiring; less hiring means (eventually) things break—namely, the economy.
We'll say it again—and it's been five months straight at this point—lower interest rates before it's too late. Manufacturing is already showing signs of contraction. The Fed should cut now.
Stay safe and God-speed.
Tom
